How Soccer Betting Works
It's no secret that soccer is one of the toughest sports to bet on. There aren't many people out there that have more knowledge of a match or tournament than the person setting the odds on the event. When this is the case value is hard to come by because the actual odds on offer are never too far away from a true representation of the actual odds of the result happening. To find value on a soccer market you must find odds that are higher than the true odds of the result you're backing.
In this soccer betting guide I'll talk about things I do to price up a market and eventually work out if there's value in it or not. Now I'm not a professional handicapper or professional sports bettor but I've got a good record when it comes to winning at soccer betting sites and if you apply the principles you find in this article then you'll already be leaps and bounds ahead of most gamblers out there.
How to Find the True Odds on Soccer Games
There are a number of different factors which affect the odds on an individual soccer match. In fact there are so many variables that I won't be able to list them all here. What I will do is list the three I consider most important or if you prefer the three factors which have the biggest impact on the odds any betting site will offer you.
#1 Current Form
Current form is the most important factor when it comes to the variation in odds you'll find on any soccer game. If a team is heavily in form or heavily out of form then you're going to find their price is either long or short depending on their current season record.
In the Premier League if Manchester United are topping the table and looking strong you'll struggle to get anything close to even money on them no matter who they are playing. If a team like Blackburn are struggling for points and lie in the bottom three then you'll always get them for a good price. Anyone who's setting odds on a football match looks at form and it plays a major part in their decision making process.
So, we know the odds makers are taking form into consideration. How can we exploit this? Well there are certain times when the form book goes out the window namely the first 5 or so games of any season, early round domestic cup matches and international friendly games. These type of games are much more likely to provide value betting opportunities.
#2 The Starting Eleven
Another massive consideration for anyone setting the odds on a soccer match is the starting eleven players that both teams are likely to field. If key players are missing through injury or suspension then the dynamics of any team can change dramatically. This is always more of an issue when keys strikers are missing from a teams starting eleven as their chance of scoring goals takes a nose dive.
It's actually pretty easy to use the starting eleven to find value on football matches. Matches that often provide a good opportunity to find value are those in which key players are missing and that take place between teams in the middle or bottom half of the table. These teams often have thin squads and rely heavily on certain players for creativity and goals. You'll find the odds set don't reflect the fact that one team is missing a key player.
A modern day example of this would be a Premier League clash between sides such as Aston Villa and Stoke. If these two teams met with fully fit squads then Villa would be favourites. If they met and Aston Villa striker Darren Bent was injured then Stoke would have a much better chance of getting something from the game as Villa have very little cover in the striking department. This makes Villa less likely to score and therefore less likely to win. Even odds at the best betting sites don't always react correctly to key injuries and therefore value can be found in the market.
#3 The Importance Of The Fixture
Friendly matches are not important. League matches are important. Some clubs consider early round cup games unimportant whilst other clubs consider cup competitions a realistic chance for some silverware. The importance of the fixture plays a massive role in the betting that's done on the fixture. If one side isn't bothered about the game but another is up for it then shock results can occur. You only have to look at the giant killings that take place every year in the FA Cup to see this in action.
The best way to exploit this kind of situation is to look at early round cup games. Make a list of teams in the top league and decide how much this competition matters to them. Then look at the teams they are playing and try to find some fixtures which include a team from the top division that doesn't care about the cup and a solid team from a lower division who the cup really matters to. These can be great games to bet on and often the odds are far too heavily weighted in favour of the bigger name team.
